India is undergoing an energy transition from fossil-based to clean energy. Our quarterly Market Handbook helps identify and analyse trends, present data-backed evidence and connect the dots to present a short-term market outlook.
Key Findings
  • Total generation in Q3 FY23 was up by 10.0% compared to Q3 FY22 and reduced by 9.2% in comparison to Q2 FY23 with the onset of the winter season and cold waves in the later part of December 2022.
    • October: Up by 3.4%
    • November: Up by 14.6%
    • December: Up by 13.7%
    • Total Q3 FY23: Up by 10.0%
  • RE generation increased by 25.9% vs the same quarter in the previous fiscal year (Q3 FY22). Coal/lignite-based generation was up by 10.5% and hydro by 3.4% for the same period.
  • From an average daily generation perspective, the share of RE and coal/lignite increased, whereas hydro share declined in Q3 FY23 compared to Q3 FY22.
    • RE: Share up from 9.1% to 10.4%
    • Hydro: Share down from 11.0% to 10.3%
    • RE + Hydro: Share up from 20.0% to 20.6%
    • Coal/lignite: Share up from 74.5% to 74.9%
Figure 1: Source-wise daily generation
Source: POSOCO. Note: RE technologies include solar, wind, biomass, waste-to-energy, and small hydro and do not include rooftop solar and large hydro (>25 MW) generation.
  • The overdue amount payable by discoms to power producers stood at INR 27,393 crore in December 2022.
  • As per the performance of the power utilities report 2020-21, pan-India AT&C losses stood at 22.32%. As reported on the UDAY portal, the ACS-ARR gap stood at INR 0.54/unit as of December 2022.
Figure 2: Discom payable and receivable days for RE-rich states
Source: UDAY portal (based on data disclosed by discoms as of 31 March 2022). *Data not available for these states; values derived from 2019–20/ 2020–21 financial reports.
  • In Q3 FY23, most listed RE stocks (except Suzlon Energy) trended downwards, whereas the Sensex was up by 7% in December 2022 (vs September 2022).
  • The share price of wind developer–manufacturers. Inox Wind was down by 26%, whereas Suzlon Energy’s share price was up by 20% in December 2022 (vs September 2022).
  • The share price of RE developer Adani Green Energy was down by 14%, and that of Sterling and Wilson was down by 13% as of December 2022 (vs September 2022).
Figure 3: Change in key renewable energy stock prices (indexed to 100)
Source: Money Control.
Note: Share prices are the last traded value in each month.
  • Continuing the trend since the beginning of FY23, in Q3 FY23, no new green bonds by RE developers were issued.
  • In November 2022, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) approved India’s sovereign green bonds framework. The core components of the framework are around the use of proceeds, project evaluation and selection, management of proceeds and reporting.
  • In the previous quarter, the Government of India announced its plans to borrow INR 16,000 crores (USD 1.94 billion) through sovereign green bonds (SGrBs) in the second half of the fiscal year 2022-23.
Figure 4: Bond yields* and key financial rates
Source: Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, Trading Economics, Money Control and BondEvalue.
Note: Bond prices are the last traded value in each month; * Current yield.