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Report

Amaravati: Building Climate Resilience

Hem Himanshu Dholakia
May 2019 | Risks & Adaptation

Clare Goodess, Colin Harpham, Nikki Kent, Ramesh Urlam, Sushma Chaudhary, and Hem H. Dholakia

Citation: Goodess, Clare, Colin Harpham, Nikki Kent, Ramesh Urlam, Sushma Chaudhary, and Hem H. Dholakia. 2019. Amaravati - Building a path towards climate resilience. New Delhi: CEEW, UEA, and Mott Macdonald.

Overview

This report assesses current and future climate risks for the city of Amaravati (the new capital of Andhra Pradesh, India). It also discusses a climate-resilience framework for the city based on the city plans for energy, transport, and water. This study was conducted in collaboration with the University of East Anglia and Mott Macdonald, along with various stakeholders in the Government of Andhra Pradesh.

India is currently undergoing rapid urbanisation and another 300 million citizens are expected to move to urban areas by 2050. Further, over the next 20 years, investments of about USD 1 trillion will be required for building urban infrastructure. Given India’s increasing vulnerability to extreme-weather events and other climate change impacts, governments at all levels must focus on climate resilience. Greenfield cities such as Amravati are especially uniquely positioned to incorporate climate resilience in their city development plans.

Key Findings

  • Amaravati is expected to experience an increase of 3.7 degree Celsius in mean annual temperature by the end of this century. The average temperature during summers ranges from 30 degree Celsius to 48 degree Celsius.
  • More than 350 districts, across India are expected to experience warming of more than two degree Celsius, by the end of the century. Average rainfall is likely to increase by about 13 per cent by the end of the century. Heavy-precipitation events are likely to be more frequent.
  • Resilient infrastructure could cost up to 30 per cent more depending on the type of measures being implemented.

Overview of Climate resilience framework for Indian cities.

What is climate resilience (CS) and how does it affect my city?

Source: Author’s compilation

Climate Risks to Key Sectors

Transportation Sector

  • The Transport Master Plan (TMP) for Amaravati has laid out a series of road networks for inter as well as intra-city road mobility, to cater to the mobility demand of 2.1 million people.
  • As per the plan, public transport could account for an ultimate share of 70 per cent of all transport in the city by 2050, with the central business district (CBD) having an 80 per cent share
  • Higher temperatures may lead to cracks in road surfaces and increased precipitation can result in the formation of potholes or in the deepening of existing ones.
  • Extreme-climate events may result in destruction of roads, damage to culverts, as well as collapse of bridges. These disruptions are likely to restrict access to healthcare services and impede emergency response systems, potentially threatening human and even animal life.

Water Supply

  • Total clear water demand and total raw water demand are estimated to be at 752 million litres per day (MLD) and 776 MLD respectively, for the design period of 2050 for a total project area of 217 square km.
  • Present water supply, on the basis of which the existing village schemes are functioning, will not be able to cater to the future demand of Amaravati.
  • Amaravati can experience an increase of 3.7 degree Celsius in mean annual temperature by the end of the century (2071-2100). This temperature rise could result in high precipitation losses as well as increased water consumption.
  • The rise in temperature will increase stress on energy requirements for operating water infrastructure.

Energy Sector

  • A rise in mean annual temperature is expected to increase energy requirements for space cooling and to reduce energy requirements for warming.
  • High temperatures may impact the efficiency of thermal power plants. Changes in precipitation could affect the prospects for hydropower, positively or negatively.
  • There will be an estimated five per cent increase in electricity demand for a 1°C increase in temperature. Amaravati would need to anticipate and plan for higher electricity demand in the future, well above current estimations.
  • The power demand for residential use is 999.52 MW, for commercial use is 667.96 MW, government and institutions is 190.84 MW, and for roads is 17.22 MW.
  • The power density is 12.47 MW/Square km in Amaravati, which is higher compared with other international cities.

Overarching climate resilience roadmap

Source: Author’s compilation

Flood Management

  • An existing bund along the Krishna river currently protects the capital city area from the high water-levels of the river, which range from +25 m to +27m above mean sea level (MSL).
  • Increase in temperature due to climate change will alter evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture conditions, resulting in variability in catchment runoff and flood discharge.
  • Rise in rainfall by about 13 per cent as a result of climate change would result in increased flooding in Amaravati. Low-lying areas would be inundated during flash floods, if there is no planning to accommodate extreme floods due to climate-change effects
  • Rainfall of 222 mm in 24 hours for a 100-year return period flood has been predicted in Amaravati, based on historical rainfall data and the results of hydrological and hydraulic modelling. The estimated volume of flood discharge that would require pumping is around 18,000 cusecs

Key Recommendations

  • Prioritise and undertake a climate-screening assessment of critical infrastructure such as energy, metro system, roads, and water supply in Amravati.
  • Create plans based on trade-offs between system design after factoring in information on future climate trends and economic considerations.
  • Define the level of risk that the city is prepared to bear or the extent to which it is willing to build resilience. Implement resilience options that are appropriate to mitigate these risks.
  • Assign ownership and responsibility along with relevant timeframes for reporting progress in implementing resilience measures. Undertake periodic review and reporting of risks, resilience plans, and progress.
Climate resilience can be built in Amaravati through prior implementation of energy-efficiency standards, adoption of demand-side management measures, and installation of additional generation capacity.

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