Net-zero…for countries

At the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Prime Minister Modi declared that India will reach net-zero emissions by 2070. As of November 2021, net-zero pledges cover over 80 per cent of global emissions.¹ Put simply, ‘net-zero’ means that an entity has no net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions annually, as shown in the equation below.

Net GHG emissions = GHG emitted into the atmosphere – GHG removed from the atmosphere = 0

Therefore, to achieve net-zero, countries must significantly cut their GHG emissions from present levels and remove any remaining emissions from the atmosphere. This two-part series explains what net-zero targets mean for countries and corporate entities and highlights some nuances in accounting frameworks. This piece focuses on net-zero targets for countries.

Why net-zero? And why 2050?

The concept of ‘net-zero’ became widespread after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its 2018 report on restricting global warming to 1.5^oC. The report states that the world must slash carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 45 per cent by 2030² and achieve net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 to restrict global warming to 1.5^oC.³ Levels of other GHG emissions, such as methane, also need to be drastically reduced from current levels. Accordingly, 67 countries have announced net-zero targets, and 41 have set 2050 as their target year.⁴

How do countries emit greenhouse gases?

Countries report their emission levels as per the IPCC guidelines. Figure 1 shows the contribution of various sectors to total global emissions in 2018. The energy sector dominates emissions and is followed by agriculture, which is a major emitter of methane. Industrial emissions occur through processes such as steelmaking and cement manufacturing, while waste-related emissions predominantly originate from landfills. Land-use change and forestry emissions occur through deforestation and land degradation.

Figure 1: Energy sector emissions made up 76% of global emissions in 2018

Source: Johannes Friedrich et al, “This Interactive Chart Shows Changes in the World's Top 10 Emitters,” World Resources Institute, December 10, 2020, https://www.wri.org/insights/interactive-chart-shows-changes-worlds-top-10-emitters.

How do countries remove greenhouse gas emissions?

Countries remove emissions through absorption of CO₂ by carbon sinks, which can be natural (e.g., forests, cropland, and oceans) or synthetic (carbon capture technologies). Synthetic sinks make up a negligible share of global carbon removals and are not yet commercially viable.⁵ The emissions removal capability of each country’s natural carbon sinks depends on their green cover and deforestation practices. In India’s case, CO₂ absorption by forests and cropland reduced net emissions by 11 per cent in 2016.⁶ However, while sinks play an important role, their impact can change over time as deforestation and forest fires often reverse the gains of CO₂ absorption.

Relevance and impact

As net-zero timelines span multiple decades, reinforcing them through national laws builds accountability for the future. As of 2021, only 15 countries have enshrined net-zero targets in national laws.⁷ The remaining 52 countries with net-zero pledges have only issued declarations or policy documents with their targets.

In addition to the 67 countries mentioned above, others are at varying stages of committing to net-zero and are deciding on their timelines. Announcing a target is the first step; detailed decarbonisation strategies for each sector must back up net-zero pledges. Further, citizens need to understand the policy framework required to hold governments and corporations accountable to their net-zero targets.

To understand the sectoral impacts of India’s net-zero transition, access our recent study, Implications of a Net-Zero Target for India’s Sectoral Energy Transitions and Climate Policy. Try out our interactive tool to explore different net-zero pathways for India. 

In the next CEF Explains, we discuss net-zero implications for corporates.

Read Part 2: CEF Explains net-zero…for corporates