India is undergoing an energy transition from fossil-based to clean energy. Our quarterly Market Handbook helps identify and analyse trends, present data-backed evidence and connect the dots to present a short-term market outlook.
Total generation in FY23 was up by 11.5%
compared to FY22. Contributing factors included a higher number of heat wave days and the absence of active western disturbances in Q1 FY23 and higher colder-than-usual days in December 2022 and January 2023.
- Q1: Up by 16.0%
- Q2: Up by 6.8%
- Q3: Up by 10.0%
- Q4: Up by 11.8%
- Total FY21: Up by 11.5%
Overall RE generation increased by 21.8%,while large hydro and coal/lignite generation grew
by 6.1% and 12.0%, respectively (vs FY22).
From an average daily generation perspective, the share of RE and coal/lignite increased,
whereas hydro share declined in FY23 compared to FY22.
- RE: Share up from 10.8% to 11.8%
- Hydro: Share down from 11.5% to 11.0%
- RE + Hydro: Almost constant from 22.3% to 22.8%
- Coal/lignite: Share up from 72.5% to 73.1%
Figure 1: Source-wise daily generation
Source: POSOCO. Note: RE technologies include solar, wind, biomass, waste-to-energy, and small
hydro and do not include rooftop solar and large hydro (>25 MW) generation.
As of March 2023, legacy dues# of discoms to generating companies reduced from INR 1,38,378 crore to INR 91,061 crore and the current dues# stood at INR 28,449 crore. The legacy dues were down by 34% in March 2023 (vs March 2022).
According to the Ministry of Power’s (MoP) Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) platform, discoms in Karnataka, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Assam topped the latest quarterly performance assessment*.
As per the performance of the power utilities report 2021-22, pan-India AT&C losses stood at 16.5% vs 21.5% in 2020-21.
*As of December 2022. #Legacy dues are already past their due date and remain partially or completely unpaid.
Current dues are partially or completely unpaid but are still within their respective due dates.
Figure 2: Discom payable and receivable days for RE rich states
Source: UDAY portal (based on data disclosed by discoms as of 31 December 2022). *Data not available for these states; values derived from 2019–20/ 2020–21 financial reports.
In FY23, most of the listed RE stocks trended downwards, barring a few peaks in Q2 and Q3 FY23. The market (Sensex) mostly remained stagnant throughout the year.
The share price of RE developer Adani Green Energy saw a sharp plunge in Q4 FY22, down by 53.9% in March 2023 (vs March 2022).
In the case of Sterling and Wilson Solar, the share price was down by 8.32% in March 2023 (vs March 2022).
The share price of Borosil Renewables, which holds a near monopoly position in India’s solar panel glass manufacturing, was down by 29.2% in March 2023 (vs March 2022).
The share price of wind developer–manufacturers Inox Wind was down by 15.7%, whereas
Suzlon Energy’s was down by 13.6% in March 2023 (vs March 2022).
Figure 3: Change in key renewable energy stock prices (indexed to 100)
Source: Money Control.
Note: Share prices are the last traded value in each month
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) conducted the first sovereign green bond (SGrB) auction worth INR 16,000 crore in two tranches in FY23. It had two SGrB offerings (a) 5-year (SGrB 2028) and (b) 10-year (SGrB 2033). Both tranches were oversubscribed; the 5-year offering received 96 and 62 bids, and the 10-year offering received 170 and 91 bids in tranche I and II, respectively. The proceeds will be used to finance and/or refinance expenses of eligible green projects as per the sovereign green bonds framework.
In FY23, the repo rate was hiked six times from 4.0% (April 2022) to 6.50% (March 2023).
Key bond yields in India, including the 10-year treasury and NTPC’s 10-year bond yields, fluctuated throughout the year.
Figure 4: Bond yields* and key financial rates
Source: Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, Trading Economics, Money Control, and BondEvalue. *Current yield.
Note: Bond prices are the last traded value in each month.