India is undergoing an energy transition from fossil-based to clean energy. Our quarterly Market Handbook helps identify and analyse trends, present data-backed evidence and connect the dots to present a short-term market outlook.
Total generation in FY22 was up by 8% compared to FY21. Contributing factors included lower-than-normal monsoons in Q2 FY22, the early onset of summer in Q4 FY22 (hottest March in recorded history of 122 years) and continuous improvement in economic activity.
- Q1: Up by 17.2%
- Q2: Up by 9.1%
- Q3: Up by 2.7%
- Q4: Up by 4.0%
- Total FY22: Up by 8.0%
Overall RE generation increased by 15.7%, while large hydro generation and coal/lignite generation grew by 1.5% and 10.1%, respectively (vs. FY21).
From an average daily generation perspective, the share of RE and coal/lignite increased, whereas hydro share declined in FY22 compared to FY21.
- RE: Share up from 10.1% to 10.8%
- Hydro: Share down from 12.3% to 11.5%
- RE + Hydro: Almost constant from 22.4% to 22.3%
- Coal/lignite: Share up from 71.1% to 72.5%
Figure 1: Source-wise daily generation
Source: POSOCO. Note: RE technologies include solar, wind, biomass, waste-to-energy, and small hydro and do not include rooftop solar and large hydro (>25 MW) generation.
The overdue amount payable by discoms to power producers increased by 3% in Q4 FY22 (INR 1,27,784 crore) compared to Q3 FY22 (INR 1,23,657 crore) and increased by 32% compared to Q4 FY21 (INR 97,020 crore).
As of December 2021, according to the Ministry of Power’s (MoP) Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) platform, discoms in Karnataka, Gujarat, Kerala, Rajasthan and Haryana topped the latest quarterly performance assessment.
From a payment delay standpoint, discoms in Gujarat, Assam, Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand, cleared their power purchase dues within 45 days (as of December 2021). On the other hand, discoms in Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh took more than 120 days to clear their dues.
Figure 2: Discom payable and receivable days for RE rich states
Source: UDAY portal (based on data disclosed by discoms as of 31 December 2021). *Data not available for these states; values derived from 2019–20/ 2020–21 financial reports.
In contrast to a lacklustre Indian share market, in FY22, all the listed RE stocks (except the NYSE listed solar project developer Azure Power) notably outperformed the market (Sensex), which was in turn up by 18% as of March 2022 (vs. March 2021).
The share price of the pure-play RE developer, Adani Green Energy, significantly outperformed the market consistently throughout FY22, up by 75% as of March 2022 (vs. March 2021).
Similarly, the share price of Borosil Renewables, which holds a monopoly position in India’s solar panel glass manufacturing, was up by 137% as of March 2022 (vs. March 2021).
The stock prices of wind developer–manufacturers Inox Wind and Suzlon Energy were up by 60% and 83% in this period, respectively. A consistent expansion of their order books and increasing quarterly profits attracted investor interest.
Figure 3: Change in key renewable energy stock prices (indexed to 100)
Source: Money Control.
* National Securities Depository Limited.
* National Securities Depository Limited.
In FY22, India saw a notable rise in green and sustainability-linked bond (SLB)** issuances in the international markets.This includes the USD 4.94 billion (vs. USD 3.3 billion in FY21) green bonds issued by RE developers such as Greenko, ReNew Power, Acme Solar, and Adani Green Energy. In addition, JSW Steel, Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd., and JSW Infrastructure raised USD 1.7 billion through SLBs.
Recently, in Q4 FY22, ReNew Power raised USD 400 million at a 4.50% interest rate for five years, and Greenko raised USD 750 million at 5.50% for three years through green bonds.
Key bond yields in India, including the 10-year treasury and NTPC’s 10-year bond yields, saw a spike in Q4 FY22 following expectations of a likely rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.
Figure 4: Bond yields* and key financial rates
Source: Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, Trading Economics, Money Control, and BondEvalue. *Current yield.