Council on Energy, Environment and Water Integrated | International | Independent
India’s green transition is entering a decisive phase. To meet its net-zero targets by 2070, India will need to deploy 7,000 GW of renewable energy (RE). Yet, according to a recent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), the country’s theoretical unconstrained RE potential is over three times that figure—at 24,000 GW. So, what are the challenges to scaling this mountain?
The study, Unlocking India’s Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Potential, is the first-of-its-kind to map India’s RE and green hydrogen potential by analysing the entire country’s landmass and applying real-world constraints. It does this by using detailed 5x5 km grid cells, which offer a more practical assessment of what can actually be developed and where. India currently has an installed RE capacity of ~179 GW, and up to 1,500 GW, the constraints are relatively manageable. However, deployment beyond 1,500 GW could face critical challenges as multiple constraints intensify, narrowing the runway to reach the net-zero target. Renewable energy, including solar, wind, and green hydrogen, is crucial to realise India’s climate goals, but scaling up these technologies will require strategic land use, improved water management, and resilient power grid infrastructure.
The CEEW study finds that population density significantly limits the realisation of India’s RE potential, with only 29 per cent of onshore wind potential and 27 per cent of solar potential located in areas with a population density lower than 250 people/km2. Land conflicts further restrict deployment, with only about 35 per cent of onshore wind potential and 41 per cent of solar potential located in areas free from historical land conflicts. However, earthquakes are less of a concern, as 83 per cent of onshore wind and 77 per cent of solar potential are located in low to moderate seismic zones.
These insights can also be explored through The Great Indian RE Challenge, a new interactive explainer that helps unpack what’s needed to translate ambition into action, mapping how multiple challenges could emerge simultaneously as India ambitiously scales up its renewable energy capacity.
To dig deeper into the findings, Neera Majumdar from Outreach spoke to Hemant Mallya, leading expert on industrial sustainability and lead author of the study, in August 2024.
Neera: Hemant, 2024 was quite a year. We've seen a greener push in the Union Budget, reinforced international commitments, and of course, our net-zero target for 2070 remains central. But we've also witnessed extreme weather events that signal the urgency of climate action. In the midst of all this CEEW’s latest study shows that we will face challenges. Could you tell us what the ‘Nexus’ study is all about and what sets it apart?
Hemant: When we started the study, we had two key questions: First, does India have the renewable energy (RE) potential—particularly solar and wind—to meet its net-zero goals? Second, what are the on-ground constraints in scaling this capacity? It’s not just about having sunlight or wind; solar needs land, and green hydrogen—another crucial piece of the puzzle—requires water. The Nexus study maps these variables and their interactions.
We mapped the country into 5x5 km² pixels and assessed how different land, water, and climatic variables impact RE generation and hydrogen production. This is perhaps the most granular and integrated spatial analysis of its kind for India.
Neera: What would you say are the top three findings from the study?
Hemant: Three things surprised us:
Neera: There’s one number in the study that really popped out at me, 24,000 GW of unconstrained RE potential in India. As a former journalist, I’m tempted to make that my headline. Should I?
Hemant: It is a striking number, but it should come with caveats. Yes, the potential is enormous—but real-world constraints could limit how much of that we can actually harness. For instance, Rajasthan has huge RE potential, but laying transmission lines could run into ecological hurdles—like it did in the Great Indian Bustard habitat.
Also, not all of that potential is equally cost-effective. Some regions may have high potential but much higher costs. So, while 24,000 GW is technically possible, we need to temper that number with practical realities.
Neera: So, how much RE does India actually need to meet its net-zero goal?
Hemant: Our earlier analysis at CEEW suggests about 5,600 GW of solar and around 1,800 GW of wind by 2070. Wind is more challenging due to offshore costs being higher compared to onshore generation, whereas solar should be more achievable—if we address land and transmission constraints through the right policies.
Neera: Scaling up to 7,000 GW is a massive task and will come with its own challenges and constraints. Some of them will play out simultaneously. Do you foresee population density or land conflicts as a major concern?
Hemant: They’re both highly correlated, as we have seen. It will become a problem as we scale up, especially social conflicts. The classification of land in India is really a colonial vestige. For example, “wastelands” are classified as such because they do not have any economic output, but that does not mean that communities do not rely on those parcels of land. Those are the issues that will crop us as we scale RE. We don’t see that being a problem as being a big problem up to 500 GW but beyond that we will start tapping into areas that already have pre-existing conflicts. Or you could end up in areas with high population density—over 400 people per km2—and you will see more social conflicts come up.
Neera: What about earthquakes and climate risks? Our earlier study from CEEW shows that monsoon patterns are changing due to climate change. A lot of our RE is being built out on the Western Coast, wind and solar both.
Hemant: Earthquakes aren’t a major concern in the early phases—say, for the first few thousand gigawatts. One can say this can be overcome by developing earthquake-resistant infrastructure. But yes, climate risks are a growing issue. For solar parks, cloud cover and erratic rainfall can directly affect generation. A new concern is insurance. As risks increase, insurers are reluctant to underwrite projects in high-risk zones—this is emerging as a key bottleneck across industries, not just RE.
Neera: What should policymakers take away from the Nexus Study?
Hemant: First, it offers a clear answer : India does have sufficient potential. But policymakers must shift from short-term targets to long-term planning. Building just a few hundred GW at a time will not cut it. We need policies today that anticipate the bottlenecks of 2040 and beyond.
Neera: And what’s your message to RE developers and industry leaders?
Hemant: Land will be your biggest resource—alongside capital and technology. Social conflicts can delay or derail projects and need to be taken seriously and avoided, at least in the early stages of development. So, engage communities from day one and factor in socio-economic sensitivities into your planning.
Neera: Before we wrap, let’s switch gears for some quick takes.
State with the highest RE potential?
Hemant: Rajasthan.
State with top green hydrogen potential?
Hemant: Gujarat, considering both cost and volume.
Land or water: Bigger constraint?
Hemant: Both—land in terms of availability, water in terms of management.
Seismic zones: Concern?
Hemant: Not in the near term.
Green hydrogen: Game changer or still too costly?
Hemant: Game changer—but it needs patience.
Best RE option for dense urban areas?
Hemant: Rooftop solar.
Top policy priority: Land banks or water policies?
Hemant: Both are equally critical.
Can India go net zero by 2070?
Hemant: Absolutely—we have to.
Hemant Mallya is Fellow and Neera Majumdar is Communications Manager at the Council for Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW), New Delhi. This interview was originally recorded in August 2024. Send your comments to [email protected]
