Council on Energy, Environment and Water Integrated | International | Independent
The global response to climate change remains outpaced by the scale of the crisis. The planet has already experienced the breach of the 1.5°C threshold for an entire year for the first time. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) now estimates that current policies could lead to a rise in global average temperatures of up to 3.1°C this century. Against this urgent backdrop, climate talks this year will be especially critical, as major economies show signs of backtracking on their commitments amid growing geopolitical turbulence.
With COP30 in Brazil less than five months away, the mid-year Bonn Climate Conference presents an important checkpoint. While not designed for high-profile announcements, it is critical for negotiating technical issues, building consensus on complex questions, and ensuring climate commitments are backed by measurable progress. The ongoing discussions at Bonn will be instrumental in driving clarity and momentum across the following key priority areas.
Global Goal on Adaptation: Can consensus be built on indicators?
With climate impacts becoming more visible and urgent, adaptation — the adjustment of systems to cope with these changes — is now a key priority. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), established in 2015, aims to strengthen resilience, reduce vulnerability, and enhance adaptive capacity of countries. This involves specific, measurable targets and guidelines for global adaptation action, as well as scaling up finance and other support for developing countries. With countries experiencing climate impacts differently, the GGA also promotes solutions tailored to local contexts and according to the needs of vulnerable groups. Countries now have a task to agree on the indicators that can track global progress against these targets.
Through successive rounds of expert dialogues, a list of over 2,000 proposed global adaptation indicators has been refined to approximately ~490. These include indicators on the Means of Implementation (MoI), a long-standing demand of developing countries. These MoI indicators—such as state spending on conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystems—are critical for assessing not only outcomes but also the adequacy of finance, technology, and capacity support that enables adaptation in the first place.
The challenge now is to arrive at a set of no more than 100 indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation that are technically sound, inclusive, and reflective of diverse national contexts by COP30. Bonn is the chance to refine these indicators and explore interlinkages across sectors and scales.
Climate finance: How will the New Collective Quantified Goal be delivered?
The credibility of global climate action hinges on whether finance keeps pace with ambition. While reportedly developed countries claim to have met the USD 100 billion annual target (albeit two years late), doubts remain about the accuracy, composition, and robustness of these flows. Recent analysis by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) also notes that none of the developed G20 countries have adequately delivered on the climate finance they pledged.
The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) agreed at COP29—set at USD 300 billion per year by 2035—was underwhelming, especially for countries grappling with escalating climate impacts. Although the decision refers to a broader aspiration of mobilising at least USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035 from all sources, it lacks clarity on burden-sharing, timelines, and finance modalities.
The Baku-to-Belém roadmap is expected to fill in these blanks: How will finance be mobilised? How much of it will be concessional? And how will debt distress be addressed? Additionally, it will be critical to see some progress on clarifying the scope of Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement, which calls for aligning all financial flows with climate-resilient and low-emission development pathways. While the Bonn is not expected to deliver breakthroughs, it offers a necessary space to meaningfully engage on the delivery of commitments and shape a pathway that responds to developing countries’ needs.
Global Stocktake and the time for countries to submit new NDCs
The Global Stocktake at COP28 noted a rapidly narrowing window for raising ambition and implementing existing commitments due to rising emissions, escalating climate impacts, and the persistent gap between pledges and real-world action. In response, Parties agreed to launch the UAE Dialogue on Implementing the Global Stocktake Outcomes. The task at Bonn now is to operationalise this dialogue, define its scope to support delivery, taking forward the preliminary discussions held at COP29.
Simultaneously, countries are expected to submit new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by September 2025, with expectations that these will close current gaps in climate ambition and implementation to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach. As of now, only 22 countries—representing less than 35 per cent of global emissions—have submitted their updated plans. As the window for course correction narrows and given the limited remaining carbon space, it is critical that countries submit highly ambitious NDCs—grounded in the latest climate science and aligned with the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake.
Defining and advancing a just transition away from fossil fuels
A rapid transition to low-carbon development must also be a just transition for developing countries. No climate ambition will be complete if it leaves people behind. In 2022, the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) was established, but much of its scope and governance architecture remains undefined.
Bonn can help advance the core elements of such a shared global framework: embedding 1.5°C-aligned mitigation ambition, recognising socio-economic opportunities in the shift away from fossil fuels, ensuring access to education, skills, decent jobs, and fair wages along with closing the finance and implementation gaps that often prevent vulnerable populations from meaningfully participating in the shift.
Without clear plans and dedicated resources, just transition risks becoming a rhetorical commitment. Bonn must begin defining what a just transition will look like in practice — across sectors, countries, and communities.
Transparency: Making the first Biennial Transparency Reports matter
Under the Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF), countries were required to submit their first Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) by 31 December 2024. Such rigorous reporting frameworks offer a standardised view of national climate efforts, including emissions inventories, mitigation and adaptation measures, and details on the flow of finance.
Till date, fewer than 70 Parties–mostly developed countries–have fulfilled the complete set of requirements, including the submission of a report along with tables on emissions, NDCs, and climate finance. For many developing countries, meeting these detailed reporting requirements remains a demanding process, especially due to limited financing and technical capacity, inconsistent data systems, and weak inter-agency coordination. Bonn provides an important opportunity to follow-up on COP29 to surface these barriers and strengthen the global support infrastructure. This includes leveraging technical cooperation, peer learning mechanisms, and well-directed financial resources.
Looking ahead: Laying the groundwork for Belém
The Bonn Climate Conference is where technical consensus is built, foundations are laid, and trust is either repaired or further frayed. Progress at Bonn across the key areas—ambition, adaptation, finance, implementation, just transition, and transparency will be critical for COP30 to deliver a stronger, more accountable and inclusive response to climate change, along with redeeming trust in the multilateral process and making the Global South’s voices heard Words must now be matched with systems, structures, and support that reflect the urgency of this moment and restore trust in multilateral climate action.
Simran Sukhija is a Research Analyst and Sumit Prasad is a Programme Lead at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). Send your comments to [email protected].
