Paper
A new scenario set for informing pathways to India’s next Nationally Determined Contribution and 2070 net-zero target
Structural reforms, LIFE, and Sectoral Pathways
Pallavi Das, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Joy Rajbanshi, Zaid Ahsan Khan, Satish Kumar, and Akash Goenka
May 2025 | Low-carbon Economy
Suggested Citation - Das, P., Chaturvedi, V., Rajbanshi, J., Khan, Z. A., Kumar, S., & Goenka, A. (2025). A new scenario set for informing pathways to India’s next Nationally Determined Contribution and 2070 net-zero target: Structural reforms, LiFE, and Sectoral Pathways. Energy and Climate Change, 100192
Overview
India announced 2070 as its net-zero target year at the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in 2021. We present a new scenario set for India that goes beyond the usual techno-economic and high-level GDP growth related uncertainties and explores a broader suite of alternative scenarios, particularly in the context of the 2070 net-zero target. These include macroeconomic development (pathways related to urbanisation, manufacturing led economy, and urban rural inequity), energy efficiency, availability of low-carbon technology, structural reforms and behavioural change that determine future energy demand and emissions.
Key Findings
- Continued reductions in emission intensity across scenarios: Across all scenarios explored, there is a continued drop in emission intensity in the future. Moreover, emissions intensity reductions are higher for a higher economic growth led by higher share of manufacturing — as envisioned under the Viksit Bharat mission, as new energy demand is met by clean technology. However, this high growth will also have higher absolute emissions if fossil-reliant industries continue to grow.
- Energy efficiency and sustainable lifestyles can deliver highest absolute emissions reductions for India: Improvements in energy efficiency and behavioural and lifestyle changes—ranging from reducing private vehicle use and adopting energy-efficient appliances to optimising residential energy use and material consumption deliver highest emission reductions. These could deliver up to 10 per cent emissions reductions by 2050 relative to business-as-usual, as well as reduce the pressure on land resources while achieving the net-zero target.
- Power pricing reforms push for higher rooftop penetration in residential buildings Rationalised tariffs for commercial and industrial users can support electrification and clean energy uptake, while gradually phasing out residential subsidies could encourage rooftop solar—provided low-income households continue receiving targeted support.
- Complementary policies help reduce carbon price to the economy: Complementary policies and initiatives beyond carbon pricing alone, reduce overall cost to the economy as well as reduce pressure of land requirements for the energy transition.
“Our new scenario analysis provides a sneak peak into the possible futures that India could take to reach its net zero target. In the near term, our analysis shows that India will be able to meet our 2030 NDC targets. But as India moves ahead on its decarbonisation journey, complementary sectoral policies along with a carbon market to reduce the pressure on carbon price which will help us achieve our 2070 target.”
