Hem H. Dholakia, Vimal Mishra, Amit Garg
June 2015 | Climate Resilience
Suggested Citation:Dholakia, Hem H., Vimal Mishra, and Amit Garg. 2015. Predicted Increases in Heat-related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India. Ahmedabad: Indian Institute of Management.
This study, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad, analyses the implications of global warming on heatwave mortality in urban India. It provides a comprehensive assessment of mortality in 52 urban areas (population more than 1 million) located in diverse climatic regimes. Further, it gives an overview of climate change-related impacts in selected Indian cities such as Ahmedabad, Shimla, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Mumbai.
The study considers air temperature projections for the two (4.5 and 8.5) representative concentration pathways (RCP). The RCP 4.5 assumes a scenario where radiative forcing stabilises at 4.5 W/m2 by the year 2100. This corresponds to an increase in average global temperature of about three degrees centigrade. The RCP 8.5 is an extreme (or worst case) scenario where countries take minimal mitigation actions to thwart future climate change. This corresponds to a scenario that has the highest greenhouse gas emissions and may lead to an increase in average temperatures up to six degrees centigrade.
The urban areas of Delhi, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Mumbai and Kolkata are projected to experience the highest absolute increases in the heat-related mortality in the 2080s under the RCP 8.5 scenario.