Executive Summary

Background: The Himalayas are increasingly vulnerable to a changing climate

In August 2026, an ice-rock avalanche in Nepal's Rasuwa district triggered a catastrophic flash flood along the Bhote Koshi and Trishuli river systems (ICIMOD 2026a; USGS 2026), sweeping away homes, destroying villages, bridges and hydropower infrastructure across nearly 100 km downstream, and causing widespread loss of life (ICIMOD 2026b). Such an event is not an isolated anomaly. Across the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region, including the Indian Himalayan Region, a rapidly changing climate has led to a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ICIMOD 2019; Wester et al. 2023). As climate change increasingly interacts with urbanisation, environmental degradation and associated socio-economic shifts, climate risks will become increasingly complex and interconnected (Adler et al. 2022), threatening the quality of life of Himalayan communities, and also those of 1.9 billion people downstream (ICIMOD 2019). Adapting to these changes, reducing future loss and damage, and building resilience to future climate-induced impacts therefore requires not only understanding risks that mountain communities experience at present, but also anticipating how these risks may evolve, identifying potential impacts, and enabling adaptation before the risks materialise.

Strategic foresight can help bridge this gap by bringing together scientific evidence, local knowledge and multiple stakeholder perspectives to explore plausible futures and identify actions that can be taken today for a climate-resilient future (Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies 2024; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2026).

Figure ES1. Foresight is the disciplined analysis of alternative futures.

This is the premise that this study builds on. It asks: How can Himalayan communities utilise strategic foresight to be able to anticipate and adapt to climate risks that may emerge in the future? And, how can they reduce disaster risk through collaboration between communities, government institutions, research organisations, and civil society, enabling effective, collective response?

The study thus illustrates how strategic foresight could be used to inform disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. It deploys the strategic foresight approach in Himachal Pradesh, a climate-vulnerable state within the Indian Himalayan Region which showcases strong community knowledge and adaptive practices, and growing state-level emphasis on decentralised disaster How Can Himalayan Communities Anticipate Risks and Adapt to a Changing Climate? 5 risk management. It brings together perspectives from various actors using foresight tools. It thus explores future scenarios under conditions of uncertainty and complexity posed by the changing climate.

Background: The Himalayas are increasingly vulnerable to a changing climate

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, the world’s Third Pole, is warming twice as fast as the global average (ICIMOD 2019 and Sabin et al. 2020). Glaciers are disappearing 65 per cent faster than in the previous decade (Shrestha et al. 2015; ICIMOD 2023b; Wester et al. 2023), while 10 of its 12 major river basins have recorded significantly below-normal snow persistence for four consecutive years (Muhammad 2025). This has sharply increased the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, flash floods, cloudbursts, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), landslides, or a compound event that arises from the combination or interaction of these hazards (Lohan et al. 2025). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now identifies the HKH as the world’s most vulnerable mountain system (IPCC 2022).

Figure ES2. The Indian Himalayan Region makes up 15% of the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region by area

The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) makes up 15 per cent of the HKH and faces these rising climatic and developmental risks. The IHR is undergoing rapid, largely unplanned and unregulated urbanisation (Walker 2011), marked by extensive land-use change (Sharma et al. 2022), encroachment into fragile ecological zones (Kumar et al. 2021), obstruction of natural water bodies, and slope cutting for road construction (Dennehy 2017). These rapid changes are straining critical ecological and infrastructural systems in the IHR, which contains some of the youngest and most geomorphologically sensitive folds of the Himalayas (Banerjee 2026). As a result, the region faces cascading physical and socio-economic risks from rising climate extremes. For instance, more than 14,390 landslides were recorded across the IHR between 2020 and 2024, disrupting road access, cutting off communities from critical services, and compounding existing infrastructural and livelihood vulnerabilities (CEEW 2025).

Within the IHR, Himachal Pradesh, in the western Himalayas, faces particularly high risk due to the combined impacts of rapid urbanisation, environmental degradation, and changing weather patterns (Tolani et al. 2024). Between 2020 and 2025, the state recorded cumulative damage of INR 21,097 crore (USD 2.19 billion) and the loss of more than 2,000 lives (HPSDMA 2025). Infrastructure, including road networks and education and healthcare facilities, was most affected, followed by key livelihood sectors. Satellite assessments also reveal a 10 per cent reduction in seasonal snow cover (IMD 2024), which has adversely impacted mountain agriculture and horticulture in a state where more than 60 per cent of the population depends on these sectors for household income (Wing et al. 2021). In response to these impacts, however, communities and institutions across Himachal Pradesh are taking active steps towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate adaptation.

The policy window: Himachal Pradesh is taking active steps for disaster risk reduction

Local communities are best placed to lead both climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction (Soanes et al. 2021; Gupta et al. 2026) as they face long-term cascading socio-economic impacts of climate risks and are often the first responders during and immediately after extreme events, especially in remote mountain contexts. Having historically been exposed to such events, local communities in Himachal Pradesh demonstrate a high capacity for both climate adaptation in the long term and disaster risk reduction in the short term, with many adaptive practices culturally embedded and locally sustained for decades.

Recognising this opportunity, the Himachal Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (HPSDMA) is taking active steps to strengthen disaster preparedness at the panchayat level and decentralise disaster response. Through the state’s Panchayat Emergency Response Centre Scheme, launched in 2025, it plans to institutionalise community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM) by establishing an organised, community-based framework for disaster preparedness, response, and recovery at the grassroots level, particularly during the critical hours immediately following a disaster, when external assistance may be delayed due to Himachal Pradesh's challenging terrain.

At the same time, communities across Himachal Pradesh are anticipating risks and taking action towards climate adaptation in the long-term (see fig ES3). Himachal Pradesh therefore presents a rare opportunity to demonstrate how anticipatory adaptation pathways can be co-developed by aligning strong community capacities with pioneering state-led institutions.

Methodological overview: The strategic foresight framework

The study built an evidence base through a literature review and stakeholder consultations, then documented climate risks and existing adaptation solutions with communities across 12 gram panchayats in four districts. We then convened stakeholders in Shimla to collectively vision a climate-resilient future for each sector and used foresight tools to map the actions, actors and mechanisms needed to reach it (see Chapter 2).

Key findings

All 12 gram panchayats surveyed are experiencing socio-economic impacts from a changing climate, as climate hazards combine with local development choices to amplify risk factors. However, all 12 Panchayats also demonstrate strong initiatives taken to reduce disaster risks and adapt in the long-term.

a. Socio-economic risks of a changing climate across 12 gram panchayats in Himachal Pradesh

• Gram Panchayat Kothi Gaihri, District Mandi is frequently affected by extreme precipitation and landslides. The region’s steep and unstable slopes are becoming increasingly unsuitable for agriculture. Community members report that prolonged use of chemical fertilisers has degraded soil structure, reduced water infiltration capacity, and increased surface runoff, leading to declining agricultural productivity and higher risks of landslides and land subsidence.
• Gram Panchayat Sunah Lamba Thach, District Mandi is frequently affected by flash floods, forest fires, and cloudbursts. Communities have observed a marked reduction in snowfall, which prevents aquifer recharge and restricts apple cultivation. Additionally, a cloudburst in 2025 severely damaged the local primary school, disrupting students’ education for months.
• Gram Panchayat Pandoh, District Mandi is frequently affected by floods, often linked to water release from the Pandoh Dam and rising water levels in the Beas River and Jayuli channel. The proximity of residential areas and market infrastructure to the river increases exposure, while illegal debris dumping and a lack of flood-protection measures further intensify flood risk. Although sirens are used for early warning, communities report that warnings do not clearly explain the timing or volume of water releases, limiting preparedness and effective early action.
• Gram Panchayat Sharchi, District Kullu is frequently affected by cloudbursts and landslides. Communities report that encroached and silted watershed channels have weakened natural drainage, increasing the risks of flash floods and landslides during extreme rainfall. Rapid, unregulated tourism growth, especially by non-local establishments, has also placed pressure on local water sources, roads, forests, and natural resources.
• Gram Panchayat Banogi, District Kullu is frequently affected by floods caused by heavy rainfall and damrelated water discharges. Communities report major losses to homes, shops, market infrastructure, and livelihoods during recent flood events. A lack of clear dam safety protocols, weak earlywarning communication, and dumping of construction waste into the river continue to increase flood exposure and mistrust among residents.
• Gram Panchayat Bajaura, District Kullu is frequently affected by extreme heat, forest fires, and flash floods. Rising temperatures, declining snowfall, and erratic rainfall have affected traditional apple cultivation, pushing farmers to shift towards pomegranate, persimmon, and other climate-resilient crops. However, declining water availability for irrigation and domestic use, a lack of water-lifting infrastructure, and road damage during disasters continue to affect crop productivity and market access.
• Gram Panchayat Chalal, District Kullu is frequently affected by cloudbursts and riverine floods. Rapid tourism-driven development near rivers and streams has increased the exposure of homestays, cafes, camps, and local infrastructure to flood damage. Cloudbursts in 2022 and 2023 caused severe loss and damage, including damage to the Chojh bridge and disruption to schooling, while the absence of a functional early-warning system continues to limit preparedness.
• Gram Panchayat Parara, District Sirmaur is frequently affected by heat, forest fires, erratic rainfall, and hailstorms. Communities report that changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures have shifted crop calendars and increased the incidence of crop diseases, particularly affecting tomatoes and garlic. Farmers have responded by adopting natural farming, rainwater harvesting, and crop diversification, but poor transport, limited cold storage, and weak market access continue to restrict income stability.
• Gram Panchayat Thana Kashoga, District Sirmaur is frequently affected by droughts, water scarcity, landslides, and forest fires. Communities report declining rainfall and rising temperatures over the last few years, reducing water availability and increasing summer stress on springs and baoris. Pastoralism has also declined due to fodder scarcity and forest fires, while landslides have damaged homes, fields, and electricity infrastructure.
• Gram Panchayat Dhamun, District Shimla is frequently affected by heat, erratic rainfall, and forest fires and is witnessing a shifting snow line. Increased deforestation and construction on slopes have contributed to soil erosion, landslide risk, and disruptions to road access. Agriculture remains important, but declining productivity, weak market linkages, the lack of cold storage, and declining youth interest in farming are affecting livelihood security.
• Gram Panchayat Sandhu, District Shimla is frequently affected by heat, forest fires, hailstorms, and erratic snowfall and rainfall patterns. Communities report that declining snowfall and reduced water flow in traditional water-harvesting structures (baoris) are affecting water availability, while landslides disrupt agriculture, roads, and access to services. Extensive use of chemical fertiliser has also affected soil quality, fertility, and stability, prompting local women to adopt natural farming methods.
• Gram Panchayat Shoghi, District Shimla is frequently affected by heat and landslides, compounded by the impacts of rapid urbanisation. The expansion of highways and tourism infrastructure has led to deforestation, slope instability, and increased landslide risk, especially after extreme rainfall events. Reduced rainfall and the drying of traditional water sources have worsened water scarcity, while unregulated tourism growth has placed additional pressure on sewage and waste systems and local utilitarian infrastructure.

b. Adaptation solutions for building climate resilience of Himalayan communities

25 anticipatory adaptation solutions were co-identified across five critical sectors: mountain agriculture, water management (including domestic and agricultural), community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR), critical infrastructure, and development planning (see Figure ES3). These range from natural farming and a shift to climate-resilient crops in mountain agriculture, to rainwater harvesting and the rejuvenation of baoris and springs in water management, to the development of village-level disaster management committees, and relocating critical infrastructure to safe zones.

Figure ES3. What a climate-resilient Himalayan village looks like: visualisation of adaptation solutions

Figure ES4. Anticipatory adaptation pathway for community-led disaster risk reduction

Figure ES5. Existing schemes and funds can finance anticipatory adaptation across five sectors

Source: Authors’ analysis.

Note: ATMA: Agricultural Technology Management Agency; CAMPA: Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority; CSR: corporate social responsibility; DDMP: District disaster management plan; DM: disaster management; GPDP: gram panchayat development plan; HPPWD: Himachal Pradesh Public Works Department; HPRIDCL: Himachal Pradesh Road and Other Infrastructure Development Corporation Limited; HP-SRTP: State Roads Transformation Program; PK3Y: Prakritik Kheti Khushhal Kisan Yojana; PMAY: Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana; PMGSY: Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana; PMKSY: Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana; PPP: public–private partnership; PWD:Public Works Department; RAFTAAR: Remunerative Approaches for Agriculture and Allied Sector Rejuvenation; READY-HP: Resilient Action for Development and Disaster Recovery Project in Himachal Pradesh; RKVY: Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana; SDRF: State Disaster Response Fund; VB-G RAM G: Viksit Bharat – Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission; VDMC: village disaster management committee, and VDMP: village disaster management plan.

Policy recommendations

• Village Disaster Management Committees (VDMCs) must be strengthened as frontline institutions for disaster risk management

  Positioned closest to communities, VDMCs can translate early warnings into anticipatory action by coordinating preparedness, last-mile response, and community mobilisation. Regular training, clear standard operating procedures (SOPs), and micro-planning tools such as the Gram Panchayat Climate Resilience Calendar, developed by CEEW, can help VDMCs anticipate risks and strengthen disaster preparedness as part of everyday local governance.

• Gram panchayat development plans (GPDPs) must be positioned as institutional anchors of climate-resilient rural development

  As the primary statutory instruments for village-level planning and budgeting, GPDPs provide a strong platform for mainstreaming climate adaptation into rural development. They can enable effective adaptation through cross-sectoral planning and coordination and by aligning local priorities with state and national missions and schemes.

• The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) should institutionalise strategic foresight for disaster risk reduction by establishing a dedicated foresight cell

  A dedicated foresight cell could enable a systematic shift from reactive response to a more proactive approach by embedding anticipatory action and scenario-based planning into disaster preparedness and decision-making. Evidence from Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan demonstrates that such institutional arrangements are both practical and effective (ICIMOD 2026).

• Research and science institutions must leverage the latest technologies to upgrade climate risk assessments and disaster forecasts

  Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, high-resolution geospatial analytics, and remote sensing could be leveraged to improve forecast precision and lead times and translate meteorological warnings into impact-based localised forecasts (IbFs). Such forecasts can enable VDMCs to pre-define anticipatory actions against set thresholds, helping to prevent damage and loss when disasters strike (IWMI 2025).

• Disaster management authorities must adopt forecast-based financing models to fund anticipatory adaptation

  Disaster management authorities should adopt forecast-based financing models that release funds when pre-defined risk thresholds are reached. Forecast-based financing (FbF) can be integrated into state, district, and gram panchayat disaster management plans by defining triggers and action protocols and establishing decentralised contingency financing. This can support early actions such as pre-emptive evacuation, route clearance, and preparedness measures, potentially reducing losses (IFRC 2017).