The Parties are required to undertake the two-year-long GST process every five years to assess their progress on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. The assessment is performed across three themes: mitigation (which includes response measures); adaptation (which includes loss and damage among other aspects); and means of implementation (on mobilisation and provision of finance, technology, and capacity building).

So far, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) processes have guided the negotiations between the Parties that have signed the Convention and the Paris Agreement. However, the GST is an inclusive process that allows non-party stakeholders (NPS) to actively participate in the process through formal submissions and the facilitation of technical dialogues, among others (Srouji, Warszawski, and Roeyer 2022).

Set to be conducted every five years, the GST process comprises and operates in three main phases: (i) information collection; (ii) technical consideration; and (iii) political consideration of the outputs (Figure 1). The GST process started in November 2021, during COP26, and is expected to conclude in December 2023 at COP28. It is facilitated at the UNFCCC by two co-facilitators, one from the developing world and one from the developed world.

• Phase I: Information collection
  The first phase of the GST is the information collection phase. A comprehensive set of inputs is received from the Secretariat, the constituted thematic bodies, the Parties, and non-party stakeholders on a broad range of subjects. The inputs are then collated as part of the technical assessment process to identify opportunities for enhanced action and support to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This phase was completed in March 2023.
• Phase II: Technical assessment
  The objective of this phase is to assess and evaluate the inputs submitted, account for the nations' efforts, and identify the key themes and takeaways that will shape outcomes under Phase III. The technical assessment is carried out through three technical dialogues held six months apart at the intersessional Subsidiary Body (SB) meetings and at the COP. This partially overlaps with the Phase I process to ensure that diverse data points can be utilised during the technical phase. The first technical dialogue (TD1.1) took place at Bonn during the SB56 meetings in June 2022, the second dialogue (TD1.2) was held in Sharm-El Sheikh during COP27 in November 2022, and the last and final one will be at the SB58 meeting in June at Bonn this year. The technical dialogues saw great participation from non-party stakeholders as technical experts and facilitators in several sessions. Further, the technical dialogues embraced an array of innovative formats including roundtables, world cafes, focused exchanges, videos, visual arts, and doodling to better disseminate key messages.
• Phase III: Political consideration of outputs
  The final stage of the GST process is the 'political consideration of output', which concludes at COP28 in Dubai. This phase is critical in ensuring impact and demands astute craftsmanship from Parties to identify opportunities, challenges, measures, and best practices for enhanced climate action. Upon conclusion, a summary of the key political asks and outcomes is expected, which can then be incorporated into a COP decision and provide guidance for nations to adopt and inform their future efforts. Countries are expected to use the outputs from the GST and look domestically to increase and strengthen their ambition and update their NDCs. However, a meaningful GST outcome will depend on the collective ability of the Parties and their intent to identify gaps and enhance cooperation to deploy relevant solutions. A high-level committee, consisting of the COP27 and COP28 presidencies, and the co-chairs of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI), will lead the consideration of outputs (UNFCCC 2019).

In addition to the formal GST process, regional climate weeks have also been used to disseminate information about the GST and ensure that stakeholders understand its process, purpose, and importance in the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Figure 1 Steps to the Global Stocktake

Source: Authors' compilation

To illustrate and understand the central priorities and asks from the GST, we analysed all the submissions by the Parties and the common established negotiation groups until 9 March 2023. There were a total of 20 submissions from the negotiating blocs and Parties and many more from non-party stakeholders. However, this analysis focuses on only the Party and negotiating bloc submissions on mitigation, adaptation, means of implementation (finance, technology and capacity-building), and cross-cutting themes – all larger themes of the GST.

Table 1 Topics of Party submissions

Source: CEEW analysis

4.1 Mitigation

We observed that almost 70 per cent of the submissions highlighted the need for higher and enhanced ambition (Figure 2). Countries' latest climate plans put the world on track for 2.7°C of warming by the end of the century (UNEP 2021). This is nowhere near the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Given this disconnect, the ambition gap has been called out and will need to be addressed.

This was closely followed by 65 per cent of submissions, which called for attention to sectoral emission pathways – many mentioned energy sector transitions and renewable energy. Currently, energy sector emissions are the source of around three-quarters of global emissions, making it crucial to switch to cleaner forms of energy for sustainable development. It is important that the GST emphasizes the need for stronger targets and offers recommendations and sector-specific guidelines for rapid transitions across all sectors.

In addition, 35 per cent of the submissions highlighted the role of carbon markets in mitigating emissions. Interestingly, the United States (US) emphasized the role of sub-national carbon markets and highlighted its existing initiatives in creating regional sub-national carbon markets with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). This is particularly compelling as national markets have not been very successful in the US.

Figure 2 Emerging themes – mitigation

Source: Authors' analysis

Lastly, 20 per cent of the submissions highlighted the need to account for pre-2020 gaps. Both the Kyoto Protocol (2008–12) and the Doha Amendment (2013–20) have witnessed several setbacks. Despite relatively lower emission reduction targets (5 per cent for Kyoto Protocol and 18 per cent for Doha Amendment), developed countries showed poor participation. Major GHG emitters such as the USA, Canada, Japan, and Russia sat out from these agreements, thereby shrugging off accountability for increased emissions (Prasad, Pandey, and Bhasin 2021). Submissions from developing country Parties and negotiating blocs noted that unfulfilled emission reduction pledges have fuelled mistrust and inaction. Hence, the GST outcome must call attention to the inactions of the past to move forward.

4.2 Adaptation

Under adaptation, 80 per cent of the submissions emphasized the rising and heightened impacts that the nations were individually and collectively facing due to climate change and noted the need for more finance from developed countries to combat them (Figure 3). This is particularly critical for developing and vulnerable nations such as India, Bhutan, Nepal, and similar geographies. CEEW’s research shows that 75 per cent of Indian districts are extremely vulnerable hotspots and addressing such impacts is critical (Mohanty and Wadhawan 2021). In light of this reality, the GST needs to provide recommendations to help countries adapt to and address such impacts as well as the need for a quantified Global Goal on Adaptation.

Submissions also mentioned the significance of loss and damage with rising number of disasters (both in frequency and scale). By one estimate, India has suffered losses worth USD 79.5 billion since 1990 due to the escalating impacts of climate change (CRED & UNISDR 2018). While the world witnessed some progress at COP27 with the establishment of the Loss and Damage fund, the submissions clearly articulated the need for immediate, wider, and more actionable recommendations for the operationalisation of the fund in light of equity to avert, address, and minimise the impacts of loss and damage and deliver funds at scale.

And lastly, the indispensable role of deploying nature-based solutions and leveraging the knowledge of indigenous communities and people has been stressed. Today, less than one-tenth of one per cent of global GDP is invested in nature-based solutions (WEF 2021).

Figure 3 Emerging themes – adaptation

Source: Authors' analysis

This meagre number sheds light on the need to mobilise finance and support toward this important solution to address the challenges of our time. Overall, there is a need for accelerated action to determine adaptation needs and recommend a set of actions that are suitable and reflect the national contexts of different nations.

4.3 Means of implementation

It is well-known that the key roadblocks to climate action are still technology transfer, finance, and capacity-building for implementing mitigation and adaptation measures. About 80 per cent of submissions clearly identified the need for enhanced finance, 70 per cent noted the need for greater capacity-building, and 85 per cent mentioned technologies across mitigation and adaptation activities (Figure 4). We observed that the African Group of Negotiators’ (AGN) submissions emphasised the need to ensure that finance instruments do not lead to further debt crises, given the current domestic economic situation. Research further suggests that around 70 per cent of public climate finance takes the form of debt (Oxfam 2022). Along with this, ongoing global issues such as inflation, the impact of the pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine war are forcing vulnerable nations to choose between economic prosperity and climate priorities. Hence, the GST outcome should emphasise the need for debt-free and low-cost financing options, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Moreover, the submissions highlighted the crucial role of technology in facilitating the low-carbon transition, particularly in the energy sector, through the use of renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, hydro, CCUS, and green hydrogen, which are critical for decarbonisation. While some developing nations have pursued a balancing act between economic growth and sustainability in their climate change policies, the GST is expected to underscore the need for greater support for inclusive low-carbon transitions, including greater climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building.

Figure 4 Emerging themes – means of implementation

Source: Authors' analysis

4.4 Cross-cutting themes

Among the cross-cutting themes, the need for science dominated the submissions, with 90 per cent of submissions mentioning it (Figure 5). Many referred to the global temperature rise discussed in the recently released IPCC AR6 report (IPCC 2022). It is clear that the realities of climate change have been well-established by science – the submissions by the Parties and the negotiating blocs reflect this. Interestingly, the joint submission from Bhutan and Nepal noted the need for a dedicated space to discuss the risks associated with rising temperatures in the cryosphere.

The GST is expected to be conducted in the light of equity, and 70 per cent of the submissions noted the importance of equity in the climate change debate. Interestingly, Norway recommended broadening the concept of equity beyond historical responsibility, to include equal access to opportunities in a zero-emissions pathway, stakeholder engagement in climate policy-making at all levels, and a just transition for the workforce.

Further, the demand for international cooperation was noted by 65 per cent of submissions. International cooperation can only take place if there are enabling frameworks and modalities in place and must support national contexts. Although global finance cooperation has been cited most frequently, there is also a need to identify other avenues of cooperation to enable the transitions we envision.

Additionally, the need for robust and reliable data has been highlighted by many developing country Parties and negotiating blocs in light of their limited capacity. Least-developed countries (LDCs) have particularly stressed the need for better data availability and arrangements to project future scenarios to make more effective, evidence-based decisions and better measure progress. Lastly, other emerging themes from the submissions included the importance of implementation, the need for just transitions, and comments on the UN process.

Overall, science, equity, climate impacts, technology, and finance are the top themes that emerge from Parties’ submissions, and the GST will therefore need to deliver on these. In conclusion, the GST is expected to go beyond just identifying the gaps and elaborate on decisive action for addressing mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, and diverse financing needs. It should continue to emphasise the importance of equity, and allow systemic global transformations and alignment of the national context and aspirations.

Figure 5 Emerging themes – cross-cutting areas

Source: Authors' analysis

While the GST is a collective exercise to determine how much progress has been made globally and what gaps need to be filled to meet the goals set under Paris Agreement, each country has a unique context, and the political outcomes of the GST will need to cater to those needs to be relevant and spur action on the ground. For India and the Global South, with limited per capita emissions and developmental aspirations, the GST will need to deliver the following:

• First, an emphasis on the equity and accountability of the developed world is critical. While the GST will measure collective progress and not focus on naming and shaming individual countries, the GST will need to account for pre-2020 gaps and hold developed countries collectively accountable for poor performance and unfulfilled pledges in the climate regime. According to a CEEW analysis, developed nations have emitted around 25 GtCO2eq (carbon dioxide equivalent) more than their estimated emissions allowance between 2008 and 2020 because of non-participation in climate agreements and the misuse of accounting provisions (Prasad, Pandey, and Bhasin 2021). If historic accountability is not addressed, future accountability and trust in the GST process will be compromised. First, an emphasis on the equity and accountability of the developed world is critical. While the GST will measure collective progress and not focus on naming and shaming individual countries, the GST will need to account for pre-2020 gaps and hold developed countries collectively accountable for poor performance and unfulfilled pledges in the climate regime. According to a CEEW analysis, developed nations have emitted around 25 GtCO2eq (carbon dioxide equivalent) more than their estimated emissions allowance between 2008 and 2020 because of non-participation in climate agreements and the misuse of accounting provisions (Prasad, Pandey, and Bhasin 2021). If historic accountability is not addressed, future accountability and trust in the GST process will be compromised.
• Second, there is a need to push for the best-available science and good practices going forward:
  • Consider equity in science: Many long-term integrated assessment models (IAMs), including the IPCC scenarios, do not consider equity but instead consider cost-effectiveness alone in their modelling framework (Kanitkar, Mythri, and Jayaraman 2022). In recent times, some modellers have started looking at equity while recommending solutions (Klinsky and Winkler 2018); thus, countries and the international scientific community must ensure equity in their climate science and long-term modelling exercises to aid in solving climate change.
  • Provide concrete guidelines for sector-based transitions: To expedite national emissions reductions, sectoral mitigation pathways are critical. These require simultaneous shifts in technologies, market rules, and investment to enhance climate action across the economy. It is critical to catalogue specific opportunities and good practices from around the world to ensure that the results can be realised at the country level. Hence, the end outcome should define concrete directions and best practices to design the most effective emissions reduction and adaptation strategy for nations in light of the best available science.
  • Commission either IPCC or another body to develop guidelines for estimating adaptation and loss and damage: With the increasing intensity and frequency of climate-related disasters, it is crucial to enhance our shared understanding of the state of adaptation and loss and damage and identify ways to estimate, avert, and minimise them. The GST outcome should request the IPCC to expand the science and research frontier by providing methodologies for estimating losses and damages related to climate-related disasters. This will provide a strong impetus for each Party to continue pursuing and enhancing measures. In addition, there should be a compendium of best practices, products, and services by disaster type to help vulnerable countries build resilience to the impacts of climate change.
• Third, recognise the role of carbon markets as a cost-effective mitigation option and provide recommendations. While India and some countries from the Global South have experience in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the voluntary carbon market, they do not have a domestic cap-and-trade carbon market. However, recent announcements made last year by India indicate that it recognises the role of carbon markets in mitigating emissions across sectors. The GST inputs on best practices for a robust carbon market will benefit India and the world as countries look to use this instrument in the coming years.
• Fourth, underline policy direction and guidelines for a just transition. While fossil fuels will need to be phased down progressively in the coming years for emissions mitigation, the transition away from coal will be daunting for India. India relies heavily on coal for both power generation and as a source of livelihood in its eastern states. Therefore, recommendations for achieving an equitable and just transition, along with enhanced financial support, will help India take climate action while ensuring jobs, growth, and overall sustainability.
• Fifth, accelerate the flow of finance through international cooperation:
  • Provide a definition of climate finance: This should take into account the support provided for climate action and assess its adequacy in line with Articles 9.33 and 9.44 of the Paris Agreement.
  • Identify sources, types of finance, and quantum of funds needed: India will need about 10 trillion USD for its net-zero transition (Singh and Sidhu 2021). The GST outcome will need to identify sources of all types of capital, including domestic and international, public and private, as well as various forms of finance, including loans, grants, concessional finance, and innovative financial instruments, such as green bonds. This will allow India and other developing countries to tap into the required finance to fuel their development.
  • Highlight market designs and institutional frameworks for finance delivery: The GST outcome will need to highlight effective market mechanisms and institutional frameworks that will smoothen finance delivery and its governance. The outcome will need to provide guidance for market designs that can help ensure strong investor signals and support mechanisms to de-risk clean energy investments in the Global South. They should also aim to attract private equity using government seed fund support, among other measures. Further, on the institutional front, the GST will need to provide institutional frameworks and processes for the delivery of timely finance to countries, so that the outcomes are relevant and usable for developing countries, especially India.
• Sixth, enhance technology prioritisation, partnerships, and collaborations: The implementation and successful achievement of ambitious climate goals demands sound and tailored technology deployment across sectors. The GST outcome must comment on the prioritisation of promising technologies that have high mitigation and adaptation potential. Further, they must provide guidance on avenues for technological collaboration between developed and developing countries for co-development and co-ownership. This is particularly essential for technologies of the future, such as green hydrogen and CCUS, which have high capital costs and are currently in the demonstration phase. Co-development will allow knowledge transfer and technical capacity-building of developing nations, which in turn will allow developing countries to deploy state-of-the-art technologies and increase the efficiency of their systems and industries.
• Seventh, nudge sustainable lifestyles through Mission 'LIFE' (Lifestyle for Environment): Individual behaviours, consumption patterns, and lifestyles have a direct impact on emissions (NITI Aayog and MoEFCC 2022). The GST outcome must acknowledge the role of individual behaviours, highlight its potential to mitigate emissions, and share best practices of sustainable lifestyles from around the world.