Electric Vehicles (EV) and Battery Manufacturing

 

 

The battery pack, electric drive, power electronics and vehicle interface module control are the major EV-exclusive component modules in EVs manufacturing (Singh, 2020). Odisha has the opportunity to accelerate economic growth by scaling both the demand and supply of EVs in the state given the demand side focus of the Odisha EV policy and the supply side focus of the Industrial Policy and the MSME policies 1 . Odisha is a producer of a number of metals such as autograde steel, stainless steel, aluminium and rare earth minerals and is endowed with the strategic port of Paradip. This enables manufacturers in Odisha to cater to domestic and global markets with low transportation costs while procuring raw materials.

Opportunities for 2030

Jobs overview

● If Odisha matches the largest EV manufacturer's (Tamil Nadu) target of manufacturing 30 per cent of India's total EV demand normalised to current manufacturing capacity at constant prices, 23,000 FTE jobs will be created.

● If batteries are also manufactured based on the EVs that would be manufactured in 2030, including replacement demand, there would be a total of 7,259 FTE jobs in battery manufacturing.

● The total jobs would be 31,000 FTE jobs by 2030.

Market Opportunity

● If India reaches 30 per cent EV penetration by 2030 and if Odisha manufacturers 10 per cent share of the total demand, the manufacturing target for Odisha would be 11 lakh units of 2-wheelers, 51,000 units of 3-wheelers and 1.5 lakh units of 4-wheelers. The market opportunity for EV manufacturers (2w, 3w, 4w) in Odisha is approximately USD 4300 million.

● The total battery manufacturing potential is 26 GWh. The market opportunity is USD 2144 million.

● The total market opportunity for battery and EV manufacturing is INR 53,000 crore (USD 6,400 million).

Investment Opportunity

● The investment required for both EV manufacturing and battery manufacturing (for EVs) is approximately INR 25,000 crore (USD 3,100 million).

Why should Odisha invest in EV and battery manufacturing?

1. Overall economic development: The rise of towns/cities as manufacturing hubs leads to economic growth in the surrounding areas, leading to the development of economic and industrial clusters. Encouraging an EV manufacturing ecosystem would lead to the colocation of multiple services, thus contributing to economic development.

2. Enhance Odisha's MSMEs - As Odisha is strategically located on India’s coastal mineral belt, it is an ideal location for emerging EV and EV component manufacturers given the availability of upstream components. Automobile & auto components is a primary focus sector of the Odisha MSME Development Policy, 2022. Growing domestic and international demand for EVs is an opportunity for Odisha’s MSME sector, given the job opportunities in manufacturing, assembling of units, sales and after sales services.

a. Further, the adoption of EVs itself has multiple benefits such as decreasing dependence on imports, mitigating air pollution and improving livelihood.

Inspiration from a success story

Nexus Power is an Odisha-based start-up manufacturing bio-organic and biodegradable batteries, which is planning to go from prototype testing to commercial-scale production. These are rechargeable batteries, where the major input material is crop residue. Nexus Power employs people across the design, procurement, manufacturing, and testing stages, among others. The company has utilised incentives for start-ups that are available at both the centre and state levels such as financial support from the Technology Incubation and Development of Entrepreneurs Scheme (TIDE) (Tripathi, 2021).

Who could support in scaling EV and battery manufacturing?

1. Role of departments:

a. Industries Department to drive scaling of EV supply from Odisha. Industrial Policy Resolution 2022 (Government of Odisha 2022) puts a strong policy framework for industrial promotion and investment facilitation in the state of Odisha. Automobile and auto component industry is classified as a thrust sector within the IPR policy 2022. The Industries Department may develop policy and strategy specifically to develop EV and component manufacturing. For battery manufacturers, the key reasons for choosing states/locations to set up their plants include business continuity and ease of transportation.

b. The Department should look to create a hub for manufacturing along with easing the process of procuring/leasing land, having workshops with original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and other industry players to attract manufacturers to the state. Further, the department, along with other concerned departments, may ensure a combination of incentives and favourable conditions such as developing plug and play services, creating special packages for players with large investment plants, developing Odisha as a hub for R&D in the sector, developing Odisha as a hub of skilled workforce in EV & battery manufacturing.

c. Micro, Small & Medium Enterprise (MSME) Department has a pivotal role in scaling EV and battery manufacturing. Start-up Odisha Policy 2016 (with operational guidelines in 2018) is already playing a critical role in boosting innovation in the EV space. MSME development Policy 2022 (Government of Odisha 2022) further classifies the automobile and auto component sector as a focus sector. MSME department may further build awareness and market Odisha as a manufacturing destination along with the Industries Department. The MSME Department may also develop programmes to support demonstration of technologies, assisting in scaling from lab to market and to assist enterprises involved in manufacturing or service of vehicles in transitioning to the EV space. The MSME Department may also evaluate Start-up Odisha Policy 2016-2022 performance and revise the scheme with a focus to make Odisha the start-up capital of India. Apart from the benefits offered as part of the MSME policy and start-up policy, the MSME department may offer working capital loan guarantee to MSMEs, and creation or facilitation of VC funding to EV SMEs.

d. The Science and Technology Department should encourage research, provide grants for R&D in battery manufacturing, promote indigenisation, and develop centres of excellence at universities and institutions on advanced battery technologies. The department along with CSOS may partner with national and international organisations and lead knowledge-sharing, mentoring programmes and workshops.

e. Further, manufacturing is often located near demand centres. To scale EV demand, the following departments are critical:

i. The Housing and Urban Development Department may direct urban local bodies and two smart cities (Bhubaneshwar and Rourkela) to take local initiatives to accelerate EV demand. This includes EV transition of government fleets like those for waste collection, planning and enforcing Low Emission Zones (Dhole et al. 2023) to promote EVs, enforce building codes for charging, providing land for public charging infrastructure, etc.

ii. b. The Transport and Commerce Department may budget for and work towards information and communications campaigns, and apart from the incentives offered to consumers under the EV policy, may also link additional incentives to buying Odisha manufactured EVs such as waiver of road tax, etc. The department, along with the Engineer in Chief (Electricity), Odisha, may work towards strengthening of charging infrastructure through better data collection and planning of charging stations, facilitation of deployment of charging stations through single window clearances, etc.

iii. Odisha Skills Development Authority (OSDA): Hiring of critical talent is a major barrier in attracting and scaling up of manufacturing. While most companies conduct in-house training, Odisha Skill Development Authority may facilitate courses on current skills shortages, especially in battery manufacturing. OSDA may work closely with the private sector to develop curriculum. OSDA may work with universities to develop centres of excellence in technologies critical to the transition such as batteries.

2. Role of the private sector and civil society organisation: Equity and debt financing will be required by companies looking to set up supply side facilities. Financiers have a crucial role in managing interest rates and upfront costs to scale demand for EVs in Odisha.

Overcoming challenges to scale EV and battery manufacturing

1. Requirement of entire EV manufacturing ecosystems: A key determinant of the location of a manufacturing plant is the availability of auto components and services. While Odisha tries to scale the manufacturing of EVs, and has identified an industrial park in Jajpur for this, it is important to attract the entire ecosystem in the state to build a manufacturing hub. Big manufacturers depend on vendors and local manufacturers and work to assemble/produce in a just-in-time manner. The closer the vendor to the factory, the better. Currently, Odisha lacks an ecosystem with small vendors, service providers, and big manufacturers.

Incentives and support such as ease of procuring/leasing land, and having workshops with OEMs and other industry players is critical to develop the entire ecosystem from scratch. Inversely, the suppliers and ACM players would follow even if one major player expands or relocates to Odisha. For example, Maruti’s initial shift to Gurgaon (Based on Key Informant Interviews (KII) with stakeholders). Similarly, support for manufacturers through guaranteed government procurement of Odisha products may be taken into consideration. For example, China handed out procurement contracts to EV companies for government cars, buses, etc. for early manufacturers (Yang 2023). At the same time, consultations with industry players highlighted the need for the government to ‘market’ itself better, especially the provisions of existing policies for manufacturing.

2. Land availability and acquisition remains a key concern for manufacturers. Large amounts of land are required for warehousing, ensuring connectivity to the factory and so on. For example, OLA Electric's future factory in Tamil Nadu required 500 acres of land, with an aim to reach an annual capacity of 10 million units per year (Mody 2022).

While the government has identified land as part of certain designated industrial and manufacturing parks, the government may go a step further and create a plug and play space for manufacturers, especially for battery manufacturers. For example, the government of Telangana has set up 1,80,000 sq ft of ready-to-occupy built-up space for battery manufacturing. Further, the government aims to set up 5 lakh sq. ft. (solely government) and an additional 10 lakh sq. ft (in Public Private Partnership model) of plug-and-play space (Department of IT, Electronics and Communication, Telangana).

3. Demand side challenges: A key factor that determines the location of manufacturing is the proximity to demand centres. There are a few challenges to demand for EVs which the government may seek to mitigate -

a. Charging Infrastructure - Charging infrastructure is a major barrier against the scaling of EV demand in Odisha. There were just 117 (PIB 2023) operational public charging stations (PCS) in Odisha as on April 2023. About 164 (The New Indian Express 2022) more PCSs are sanctioned under FAME-II in Odisha, but on the National Highways. The availability of sites for setting up charging stations is a major challenge. Additionally, the uneven distribution of EVs combined with the approach of distribution of charging stations increases the chances of inaccessibility and under-utilisation of charging stations.

Integrating charging infrastructure planning into mainstream urban planning may mitigate these challenges. Similarly, facilitating land for charging infrastructure to service providers is critical.

b. Behavioural challenge: As the technology is nascent and users have been initially primed with low-speed EVs like lead-acid e-rickshaws, there are uncertainties in clouding consumer EV purchase decisions, and there may still be behavioural barriers impeding the optimal decision-making by consumers.

Odisha’s EV policy indicates that the government will take up communication campaigns, but it is not explicitly budgeted as Information Education & Communication Awareness (IEC) in FAME-II. Increasing IEC budget allocation in the EV policy and initiating strategic EV awareness campaigns may mitigate this challenge.

c. Financial challenge: The high upfront cost and high costs of financing remain a challenge. The state government in collaboration with financial institutions may introduce innovative financing strategies using credit guarantees, incentives etc., to bring down the upfront cost and interest rates.

While there are incentives for EV buyers, Odisha may go a step further and have additional incentives for buying EV manufactured in Odisha. For example, in Uttar Pradesh, for those EVs manufactured and registered in UP, registration fees and road tax continue for the 4th and 5th year as compared to 3 years if not manufactured in UP (Government of UP 2022).

4. Research and development of new technology: Infrastructure for research on advanced cell chemistries is currently lacking in India. Similarly, there is a need for research to go from lab to commercial scale (Warrior et al. 2023).

Odisha should actively pursue and implement R&D provisions laid down in the policy, and tie up with academic institutes and international institutes. Odisha may facilitate collaboration between academic institutes and industry players to support demonstrations and provide additional support to start-ups in battery technology. While such leadership is required at the national level, Odisha with a focus on R&D and skills can be a leader at the India level and internationally.

5. Lack of skilled workforce in EV and battery manufacturing: There is a lack of skilled workforce available leading to time and cost expenses to train new employees. Skills difficult to find in the industry include battery management design, motor design, process engineering, pack assembly skills, quality control, safety skills, thermal management, CSD, embedded systems, destructive testing and cell simulation. The top skills needed in battery R&D, testing engineering and production include, knowledge of material characteristics, test procedures and methods, specifications, SAP, knowledge dashboard and metrics, troubleshooting, etc. In stores, process engineering, quality assurance, marketing sales and maintenance the key skills include negotiation skills, customer interactions and understanding requirements, material identifications, data analysis, knowledge on core tools, process validation, understanding products and applications, troubleshooting repairs, pneumatics and hydraulics (Based on interactions with industry). Transferable skills from other sectors include CAD, solid works, testing, product development, etc. (based on stakeholder consultations). Similarly, while the traditional auto industry has a number of skilled and semi-skilled repair and service technicians, developing a similar workforce for EVs is an opportunity for collaboration between skilling institutes and industry.

To mitigate this, states such as Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu provide skill development subsidies to manufacturers. Since Odisha does not have existing ICE manufacturing, Odisha may approach this by creating a brand on ‘Skilled in Odisha’. The Odisha Skills Development Authority (OSDA) may spearhead this mission, and develop courses to become a centre for skilled workforce in EV and battery manufacturing.

6. National level challenges :

a. Mismatch in GST: The auto industry buys components at 28 per cent GST, but sells vehicles at 5 per cent GST. Reimbursement period is 6 months leading to a time and cost expense.

b. Dependence on Imports: Mineral required in manufacturing of batteries are concentrated in a few geographies. Currently, over 12-60 per cent of the battery value chain is dependent on imports (Warrior et al 2023, pg. 1). Material innovations in battery technologies such as replacement of critical minerals wherever possible may diversify the supply chain (CEEW 2023, pg. 24).

Recycling and reusing end of life products, dependence on imports and need to mine new minerals may be reduced.

Risk-proofing the scale-up of EV and battery manufacturing

Transportation of batteries to demand centres may pose a risk and safety hazard if not packed and labelled properly (Tyagi et al. 2023). Post-use batteries and their improper disposal pose environmental risks. Scaling of EV demand will impact fuel tax collected by the government – 30 per cent penetration of EVs in 2030 would lead to a 10 per cent reduction in revenues from fuel tax (Harikumar et al. 2022). Scaling of demand in certain segments such as e-rickshaws may increase urban congestion and battery waste.

Mitigation: Short-term solutions such as congestion tax in certain areas, regulating quantum of e-rickshaws, and long term ones such as redesigning of roads may be used. To mitigate environmental risks, it is integral for the State Pollution Control Board to monitor and for producers to implement the Battery Waste Management Rules. To mitigate revenue loss, new avenues of revenue may be explored. To mitigate risk of congestion, regulation on conventional lead acid-battery end-of-life management as well as e-rickshaw numbers may be considered.

Annexure

Jobs and market estimation

Market sizing (in units):

● Market potential for EVs
○ The Electric Mobility Dashboard by CEEW- Centre for Energy Finance was used to project EV demand for 2030. To project the demand, it is assumed that the total demand across EV segments is 30 percent of the total demand for vehicles. The breakup per vehicle is provided in Fig1.

○ Further, it is assumed that Odisha matches Tamil Nadu (TNs) in EV manufacturing in 2030, as Tamil Nadu is the largest manufacturer of EVs. This is normalised to Odisha and TN current manufacturing contribution to India’s total manufacturing.

Fig 1: Assuming a total of 30 per cent demand for electric vehicles.

Source: Electric Mobility Dashboard, Center for Energy Finance, Soman et al.accessed via
https://www.ceew.in/cef/tools_and_dashboards/electric-mobility/home

Table 1: Normalisation based on manufacturing, constant prices

Source: State and National GVA trends, India Climate and Energy Dashboard, NITI Aayog

Table 2: EV potential of Odisha

Source: Authors analysis

Jobs estimation:

● The employment coefficient is the proportion of full time employees by the total output of the manufacturing plant in any given year. It may be expressed as employees per unit or employees per $ output.

● A strategy of convenience and purposive sampling was followed wherein ~35+ players in the 2, 3 and 4 wheeler segments were reached out to, representing more than 80 per cent of the industry in India. We received responses from 6 companies. However, due to data quality issues and lack of adequate information for 4-wheelers, it was decided not to rely on those numbers and utilise an employment factor previously utilised by CEEW (Soman et al. 2019).

● For 2- and 3- wheelers, data from KII’s form 2 companies were taken. One company is a 2-wheeler manufacturer with an output of more than 90,000 units being manufactured annually. The other is a 2+3 wheeler manufacturer, with over 2,000 units being produced annually. Employment potential is simply: ○ Jobs in 2030 = Units produced in 2030 * Employment Factor

● The employment coefficient for 4 wheelers is taken from Soman et al. 2019. Employment potential is expressed in terms of output value and for 4-wheelers is 0.35 jobs/output (INR crore). Soman et al. 2019 derive the employment factor from a primary survey conducted with 4-wheeler electric vehicle manufacturers.

● The cost of powertrain in 2030 as projected in Soman et al. 2019 has been used to calculate the jobs.

● For 4-wheelers, the calculation is the Employment coefficient time the cost of powertrain 2030 times 90 per cent, where 90 per cent level of indigenisation is assumed (Soman et al. 2019).

● To calculate the market opportunity/ size in terms of rupees, current prices of EVs are assumed for 2030. For 2-wheelers, an average of prices from 2-wheeler (Tata and Ather) companies across various models has been calculated. Similarly an average of 3 wheelers across models as available on India Mart were used. For 4-wheelers, an average of EV cars across models of companies such as MG Motors, Tata and Mahindra was calculated.

Table 3: Prices of EV segments

Table 4: The Market opportunity in terms of dollars

Source: Author’s analysis

● Investment opportunity was also calculated based on Singh, 2020.

Methodology for calculating market and employment potential for battery manufacturing

● Battery required as per projections based on the EV30 scenario and manufacturing in Odisha catering to 30 per cent of the projected demand is calculated. For the vehicles produced in 2030, the batteries required per vehicle are estimated basis Battery Waste Management Rules 2022.

Table 5: Batteries required per vehicle

Source: Battery waste rules

● The employment coefficient is derived based on a survey with key players in battery manufacturing. A total of 3 players were interviewed, of which data from 2 were used.

● Battery size has been taken from Niti Aayog’s Handbook for Charging Infrastructure in India.

Table 6: Battery size

Source: Niti Aayog, n.d

● Battery potential for a vehicle segment is simply :

Battery Potential (in kWH) = Battery size* EV units *batteries needed per vehicles.

● The total potential for manufacturing in Odisha is calculated to be 26 GWh. The employment potential is simply

Employment potential = Battery Potential * Employment Factor

● The Market potential has been calculated for 2030 assuming price per kWH is $80 in 2030 (BloomberNEF).

● The investment opportunity has been estimated using data from Warrior et al. 2023, page 17. Warrior et al. 2023 estimate that to meet 100 GWH of battery capacity, a total of INR 60,000 cr. would be required. Using this, the investment required for 26 GWh was calculated.

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