How can G20 Members’ Long-Term Strategies Help Decarbonise? CEEW

REPORT

Assessment of the G20 Members’ Long-Term Strategies

Commonalities, Gaps and Areas for Cooperation

24 August, 2023 | Low-carbon Economy

Silke Mooldijk, Juliette de Grandpré, Chetna Hareesh Kumar, Pallavi Das, Zaid Ahsan Khan, Nikita Shukla, Shalu Agrawal, Disha Agarwal, and Vaibhav Chaturvedi

Suggested Citation: NewClimate Institute and Council on Energy, Environment and Water. 2023. Assessment of the G20 Members’ Long-Term Strategies: Commonalities, Gaps and Areas for Cooperation. Cologne and Berlin: NewClimate Institute.

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Overview

According to the Paris Agreement's Article 4, paragraph 19, nations are strongly urged to create and communicate their long-term strategies (LTS) considering the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) given the national circumstances. These strategies serve as blueprints for guiding climate actions and investments and are instrumental in charting the trajectory towards decarbonisation. Seventeen G20 members have submitted their LTS (July 2023). This report, in collaboration with NewClimate Institute, systematically assesses these 17 LTS to identify commonalities, gaps and opportunities for international cooperation for the LTS submissions.

Key highlights

Key enablers: technology, finance and capacity building: Technology, finance, and capacity building are the key enablers and noted across multiple LTS. While 15 LTS emphasise the significance of research and development for essential technologies, only 6 G20 members quantify their climate finance role, with 5 mentioning existing commitments. About 11 LTS acknowledge capacity needs, though specifics remain limited.
Adaptation and loss & damage: Few G20 members’ LTS contain adaptation targets and measures. Only eight of the 17 LTS mention the need for adaptation finance but fail to quantify these needs. Only two countries mention loss and damage in their LTS.
Headline targets: Among 17 LTS, 16 set net-zero goals (including carbon neutrality etc.) Twelve countries have a net-zero target for 2050, Germany for 2045, China and Indonesia for 2060, and India for 2070.
Sectoral targets: All G20 members analysed present sectoral decarbonisation goals in their LTS. Focus lies on power, buildings, agriculture, industry, and transport, with fewer emphasising waste. Just four note lifestyle-linked mitigation strategies, emphasising behavioural change.
Energy efficiency and energy: All 17 LTS emphasise the need for energy efficiency. Sixteen G20 members mention renewable energy, and many provide targets. Further hydrogen is widely noted in the LTS and 3 countries aspire to become exporters.
Fossil fuel phase out: While several G20 members mention plans to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels gradually, France is the only G20 member to commit to phasing out fossil gas and oil exploration on its own territory in its LTS. Although we identified statements on the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies in nine of the 17 LTS we analysed, they lack clarity regarding the fuels covered and the phaseout timeline.
Residual emissions: The G20 countries assessed entail 72-81 per cent emission reduction by 2050, necessitating residual offset with carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

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Pallavi Das

Programme Lead

[email protected]

"The LTS provides an excellent opportunity for countries to plan their decarbonisation and resilience strategies. They reflect ambition, give direction to technology deployment, finance needs and delivery and capacity building requirements. They must also strongly emphasise and acknowledge the pivotal role that international cooperation can play in delivering sustainability at scale."

Executive summary

Under Article 4 paragraph 19 of the Paris Agreement, countries are encouraged to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LTS). LTS set out long-term visions that can inform climate action and investments on the short to medium term. Collectively, LTS should chart the pathway to achieving global net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. They can be a useful planning component to inform NDCs, sectoral mitigation and adaptation plans, and investment plans.

Seventeen G20 members had submitted an LTS, outlining their long-term decarbonisation and development plans, by July 2023. This report systematically assesses these 17 LTS to identify commonalities, opportunities for international cooperation, and gaps that can be addressed in future LTS submissions. We chose to analyse G20 members as they represent over 80% of both the global GDP and greenhouse emissions, in addition they have a significant impact on global decisions that impact long-term global decarbonisation efforts.

Key Enablers: Technology, Finance, and Capacity Building

Fifteen out of 17 LTS we analysed acknowledge the need for R&D in key technologies crucial for their long-term transformations, and many explicitly identify it as a priority and international cooperation area. International R&D partnerships should encourage increased participation from Global South countries to better inform innovation priorities and to facilitate equitable access to latest technologies.

While most G20 members acknowledge the role of climate finance, only six of the 17 we analysed include quantitative estimates in their LTS. We also identify a further lack of details on how adequate climate finance will be mobilised for their long-term transformations. Only five G20 members refer to their existing commitments or mention their intention to provide international climate finance.

Finally, whereas 11 of the 17 G20 members recognise the need for capacity building to achieve long-term transformation, they say little about their exact capacity needs or the potential for international cooperation in this area.

Source: Authors' analysis

Adaptataion and Loss & Damage

Few G20 members’ LTS contain adaptation targets and measures. Only eight of the 17 LTS mention the need for adaptation finance but fail to quantify these needs. Several countries acknowledge the role of international cooperation in both adaptation and adaptation finance. India and Indonesia are the only two G20 members to refer to loss and damage in their LTS.

Source: Authors' analysis

Headline Targets

Sixteen of the 17 LTS present a net zero target. Twelve of them target net zero by 2050, whereas Germany aims for 2045, China and Indonesia 2060 and India 2070. The pace of the transition will be faster for Global South than for Global North countries, considering the difference between their peak emission years and headline target years, and the former will thus require proactive technical and financial support from the latter to achieve their long-term transformations. The UK is the only G20 member to cover emissions from international aviation and shipping in its net zero target.

Source: Authors' analysis

Sectoral targets

All G20 countries we analysed have sectoral decarbonisation targets or plans in their LTS. Most countries prioritise such plans for the power, buildings, agriculture, industry, and transport sectors, and fewer countries prioritise the waste sector. Only four G20 members outline lifestyle-related mitigation plans, mainly focusing on demand-side management, energy-efficient behavioural nudges, and educational programmes. However, no country mentions lifestyle change as a key measure for reducing demand for and emissions from agriculture and international aviation.

Source: Authors' analysis

Energy

All 17 LTS mention energy efficiency. While 16 G20 members refer to renewable energy as a key part of their decarbonisation strategies, only a few provide specific targets. Most G20 members also consider hydrogen a key decarbonisation opportunity, with applications in industry, transport, refining, and power sectors. All countries plan to use bioenergy as part of their decarbonisation efforts, and nine also mention BECCS as an emissions removal technology to achieve net zero targets. Renewables, hydrogen, nuclear, and bioenergy all have sustainability impacts, which are not acknowledged in most LTS that anticipate a role for these technologies.

Source: Authors' analysis

Fossil Fuel Phase Out

While several G20 members mention plans to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels gradually, France is the only G20 member to commit to phasing out fossil gas and oil exploration on its own territory in its LTS. Although we identified statements on the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies in nine of the 17 LTS we analysed, they lack clarity regarding the fuels covered and the phase-out timeline.

Source: Authors' analysis

Residual Emissions

The G20 countries we assessed aim to reduce on average 72-81% of their 2019 emissions by 2050. To achieve net zero, these residual emissions must be offset with CDR, either through nature-based or engineered methods. The ten countries providing estimates on residual emissions expect joint emissions of 3-4.3 GtCO2e in 2050, which implies the need for substantial carbon removal efforts. Ten of the LTS provide quantitative estimates for CDR, with nine LTS providing estimates for nature-based CDR and six for engineered CDR. Nine of the G20 members assessed see a role for BECCS but do not address how to account for emissions from bioenergy production, transport, and use across national borders.

Source: Authors' analysis

Recommendations

Our assessment results in a set of recommendations for G20 members, formulated along four broad action points: Include, Specify, Enhance, and Cooperate on.

Include: We recommend the G20 members to include the following in future LTS submissions:
- International climate finance commitments
- An investment plan to achieve long-term targets
- Adaptation targets and measures
- Acknowledgement of loss and damage
- Mitigation targets and plans for all economic sectors
- Targets and plans for energy efficiency
- Behavioural measures and the role of sustainable consumption
- Transparent assumptions on nature-based and engineered CDR
Enhance: We recommend the G20 members to enhance their climate ambition by:
- Committing to earlier target years for net zero emissions
- Committing to deep emissions reduction targets alongside their net zero targets
- Considering and addressing the potential negative sustainability and climate impacts of bioenergy and BECCS
- Improving the accounting methods and guidelines for BECCS
Specify: We recommend the G20 members to be more specific on the following topics that are only vaguely addressed in current LTS:
- Finance needs for mitigation and adaptation
- Capacity building needs
- Use of international offset credits in net zero targets
- Type of hydrogen to be used for decarbonisation
- Scope and coverage of fossil fuel phase out commitments (including fossil fuel subsidies)
- Residual emissions levels in the net zero target year
Cooperate on: We recommend the G20 members to cooperate internationally on the following topics:
- Inclusive R&D partnerships
- Knowledge sharing on behavioural measures and sustainable consumption
- Capacity building programmes
- Critical minerals supply chains
- Hydrogen taxonomy development
- Phase out of fossil fuel subsidies
- Co-development of robust accounting methodologies for land use and BECCS