“India’s electricity demand is rising faster at around 9% per annum since FY21, compared to an average of 5% in the previous decade. The Central Electricity Authority projects electricity demand to grow at 6% CAGR between 2022 and 2030. However, recent trends suggest that actual demand could surpass these estimates. Economic growth, urbanisation, industrial electrification, upcoming demand avenues (green hydrogen, electric vehicles, etc.), and rising temperatures are likely to influence the demand growth and make it more uncertain.”

“Our analysis suggests that India can meet the electricity demand as projected by the Central Electricity Authority’s 20th Electric Power Survey, with existing and planned generation resources (i.e., with 500 GW non-fossil capacity) without any further coal addition in 2030. But if demand were to increase beyond these estimates, India will have multiple pathways, each with its own set of challenges to meet the demand reliably.”

“Our analysis suggests a high-RE pathway, i.e., 600 GW non-fossil capacity without any further addition of coal to be the most cost-effective pathway for 2030 to meet the rising demand reliably (without any power shortages). ”

“Temporal mismatch between the demand and supply from the intermittent renewable generation (variable RE) sources like solar and wind is the main challenge. Integration of flexible resources such as battery energy storage systems, pumped hydro, flexible coal and hydroelectricity, and transmission enhancements, and demand side flexibility will help manage the demand-supply variations in a high-RE grid.”

“There are four key barriers restricting the RE deployment at pace: (a) Transmission connectivity due to delays in granting connectivity, slow infrastructure augmentation and upgrades, process and permitting delays, and Right-of-Way issues; (b) Land, which includes non-availability of land in resource-rich areas, site accessibility issues, complexities in land aggregation, and escalation of land prices; (c) Tariff viability concerns, because of contract signing delays, ISTS waiver uncertainty, shrinking profit margins due to commissioning delays; and (d) Supply chain, including limited availability of specialised materials and components, lack of investments in standardising product designs, limited domestic manufacturing capacity to meet DCR requirements, and lack of skilled workforce”